Corruption and Covid-19’s Lethality: “So What?â€
Abstract
We aim to verify if there is an association between the level of corruption and the lethality on countries due to COVID-19 pandemic. Previous studies provide evidence that corruption can harm health outcomes, especially in developing and under-developing countries where resources are already scarce. We apply a strictly quantitative approach using dispersion graphics analysis and Pearson’s correlation on 171 countries. On countries from America, Africa, Asia and Oceania we observed that as more corrupt the country, higher its lethality, although in Europe this association is inverted. We attribute this last result to the continent possess the elderly population among other continents, the fact that countries loosened to earlier measures of physical distancing and cases of corruption were reported in some countries with a low perception of corruption. Therefore, corruption remains an issue that needs more understanding so we can decrease its effects on health outcomes and save lives, particularly in countries with weak healthcare systems. Besides, the next pandemic is coming and we need to be prepared.
Keywords: Corruption, Healthcare system, Health outcomes, COVID-19, Lethality. ÂReferences
J. M. Read, J. R. E. Bridgen, D. A. T. Cummings, A. Ho and C. P. Jewell, Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions, MedRxiv, 2020, 1-11, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549.
A. R. Tuite, I. I. Bogoch, R. Sherbo, A. Watts, D. Fisman and K. Khan, (2020) Estimation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Burden and Potential for International Dissemination of Infection From Iran, MedRxiv, 2020, https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2763328/estimation-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-burden-potential-international-dissemination.
World Health Organization. (2020). Coronavirus (COVID-19). Available at https://covid19.who.int/ (accessed 30 April 2020).
T. K. MacKey and B. A. Liang (2012), Combating healthcare corruption and fraud with improved global health governance, BMC International Health and Human Rights 12(1), 2012, 1-7.
Nemexis (2020), FRAUD’S IMPACT ON HEALTHCARE DURING COVID-19. Berlim. Available at: https://nemexis.de/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/NMXS-Survey-Covid-19.pdf (accessed 30 April 2020).
E. Hutchinson, D. Balabanova and M. McKee M, We need to talk about corruption in health systems, International Journal of Health Policy and Management 8(4), 2019, 191–194.
R. Factor and M. Kang, Corruption and population health outcomes: an analysis of data from 133 countries using structural equation modeling, International Journal of Public Health, 60(6), 2015, 633–641.
L. C. Rispel, P. Jager and S. Fonn, Exploring corruption in the South African health sector, Health Policy and Planning, 31(2), 2016, 239–249.
S. Gupta, H. Davoodi and E. Tiongson, Corruption and the provision of health care and education services, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper, 2001.
M. Hanf, A. Van-Melle, F. Fraisse, A. Roger, B. Carme and M. Nacher (2011) Corruption kills: Estimating the global impact of corruption on children deaths, PLoS ONE, 6(11), 2011, 1-7.
S. Holmberg and B. Rothstein, Dying of corruption, Health economics, policy, and law, 6(4), 2011, 529–547.
Transparency International (2020), Corruption Perceptions Index 2019. Available at: https://www.transparency.org/ (accessed 30 February 2020).
N. Ambraseys and R. Bilham, Corruption kills. Nature, 469(7329), 2011, 153–155.
M. Escaleras, N. Anbarci and C. A. Register, Public sector corruption and major earthquakes: A potentially deadly interaction, Public Choice, 132(1–2), 2007, 209–230.
D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay and M. Mastruzzi, The worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2010, Available at: http://ow.ly/JaiU50qDu1Z (accessed 30 February 2020).
A. L. Giwa, A. Desai and A. Duca, Novel 2019 coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19): An updated overview for emergency clinicians, Emergency medicine practice 22(5), 2020, 1–28.
Q. Gao, Y. Hu, Z. Dai, J. Wu, F. Xiao and J. Wang, The epidemiological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in Jingmen,Hubei,China, MedRxiv, 2020, Available at https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.07.20031393v2 (accessed 28 May 2020).
A. Hauser, M. J. Counotte, C. C. Margossian, G. Konstantinoudis, N. Low, C. L. Althaus and J. Riou, Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: a modelling study in Hubei, China and northern Italy. MedRxiv, 2020 Available at: http://medrxiv.org/content/early/2020/03/30/2020.03.04.20031104.abstract (accessed 28 May 2020).
C. Leung, Risk factors for predicting mortality in elderly patients wit COVID-19: a review of clinical data in China, Mechanisms of Ageing and Development, 2020, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mad.2020.111255.
T. M. V. Strabelli and D. E. Uip, COVID-19 and the Heart, Arquivos brasileiros de cardiologia, 114(4), 2020, 598-600.
D. Pilling, Low Covid-19 death toll raises hopes Africa may be spared worst, Financial Times, 2020, Available at https://www.ft.com/content/e9cf5ed0-a590-4bd6-8c00-b41d0c4ae6e0 (accessed 08 May 2020).
S. Bhatia et al., Short-term forecast of COVID-19 deaths in multiple countries, 2020, Available at https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html#authors (accessed 08 May 2020).
Z. Cao, Q. Zhang, X. Lu, D. Pfeiffer, Z. Jia, H. Song and D. D. Zeng, Estimating the effective reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV in China, MedRxiv, 2020, Available at: http://medrxiv.org/content/early/2020/01/29/2020.01.27.20018952.abstract (accessed 08 May 2020).
R. Li, S. Pei, B. Chen, Y. Song, T. Zhang, W. Yang and J. Shaman, Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2), Science, 368(6490), 2020, 489-498.
T. Liu et al., Time-varying transmission dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia in China. bioRxiv, Available at https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787v2.full (accessed 20 February 2019).
A. Pan et al., Association of Public Health Interventions with the Epidemiology of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Wuhan, China, JAMA - Journal of the American Medical Association, 2020, 2115, 1–9.
S. Cousins, New Zealand eliminates COVID-19: An aggressive approach has enabled New Zealand to end community transmission of SARS-CoV-2, The Lancet, 2020 Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31097-7 (accessed 15 May 2020).
W. M. Aburto, Nicaragua has unusually low numbers of OCVID-19 cases: Government presents statistics excluding deceased, recovered cases, while not conducting massive testing, Anadolu Agency, 2020, Available at https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/nicaragua-has-unusually-low-number-of-covid-19-cases/1813537 (accessed 09 May 2020).
I. Brusca, R. F. Manes and N. Aversano, Accountability and Transparency to Fight against Corruption: An International Comparative Analysis, Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice, 20(5), 2018, 486–504.
C. Pring and J. Vrush, Latin America & the Caribbean 2019: Citizens ’ Views and Experiences of Corruption, Transparency International, 2020, Available at: https://www.transparency.org/files/content/pages/2019_GCB_LatinAmerica_Caribbean_Full_Report.pdf (accessed 09 May 2020).
The Lancet, COVID-19 in Brazil: “So what?â€, The Lancet, 395(10235), 2020, 1461.
S. Goli and K. S. James, How much of SARS-CoV-2 Infections is India detecting? A model-based estimation. MedRxiv, 2020 1–6.
P. Richterich P, Severe underestimation of COVID-19 case numbers: effect of epidemic growth rate and test restrictions, MedRxiv, 2020, 1–13.
J. Cassim, Zimbabwe: Malaria death toll rises amid COVID-19. Anadolu Agency, 2020, Available at https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/zimbabwe-malaria-death-toll-rises-amid-covid-19-/1813565 (accessed 09 May 2020).
Africanews, Coronavirus – Mauritania: UAE Sends Medical Aid to Mauritania in Fight Against COVID-19, 2020. Available at https://www.africanews.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-mauritania-uae-sends-medical-aid-to-mauritania-in-fight-against-covid-19/ (accessed 09 May 2020).
BBC, Algeria lifts lockdown on coronavirus epicentre, Available at Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cp7r8vglgyet/algeria (accessed 09 May 2020).
France 24, Algeria allows more businesses to-reopen amid fears of Covid-19 endangering economy, 2020, Available at https://www.france24.com/en/20200426-algeria-coronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-restrictions (accessed 09 May 2020).
S. Gupta, H. Davoodi and R. Alonso-Terme, Does Corruption Affect Income Inequality and Poverty? IMF Working Papers, 1998.
A. H. Samadi and B. Farahmandpour, The Effect of Income Inequality on Corruption in Selected Countries ( 1995-2007 ), Journal of Emerging Issues in Economics, Finance and Banking, 1(3), 2013, 214–231.
K. Gyimah-Brempong, Corruption, economic growth, and income inequality in Africa, Economics of Governance, (3), 2002 183–209.
E. Union, Ageing Europe: Looking at the levels of older people in the EU. European Union (Belgium: Imprimerie Bietlot, 2019).
T. Abel and D. McQueen, The COVID-19 pandemic calls for spatial distancing and social closeness: not for social distancing! International Journal of Public Health, 7, 2020, 1366.
E. MahasE, Covid-19: UK starts social distancing after new model points to 260 000 potential deaths, BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 368(March), 2020, 1089.
D. Keyton, and V. Gera, Sweden broke norms with “low-scale†lockdown. Is it working? The Christian Science Monitor, 2020. Available at https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2020/0413/Sweden-broke-norms-with-low-scale-lockdown.-Is-it-working (accessed 09 May 2020).
J. Pieters, Temporary lockdown a possibility, not yet necessary, Dutch PM says about COVID-19, 2020, Available at https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/18/temporary-lock-possibility-yet-necessary-dutch-pm-says-covid-19 (accessed 09 May 2020).
M. Busby and N. Parveen, Police urge people to maintain physical distancing in UK parks, The Guardian, 2020, Available at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/police-urge-people-to-maintain-physical-distance-in-uk-parks (accessed 09 May 2020).
M. Chini, How is the police handling Belgium’s shutdown measures? The Brussels Times, 2020. Available at https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/101201/how-is-the-police-handling-belgiums-shutdown-measures/ (accessed 09 May 2020).
L. Cendrowicz, Why Belgium has the highest coronavirus death rate in the world, The Independent, 2020, Available at https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-belgium-death-toll-lockdown-trump-who-uk-spain-italy-a9494186.html (accessed 09 May 2020).
G. L. Werneck and M. S. Carvalho, A pandemia de COVID-19 no Brasil: crônica de uma crise sanitária anunciada. Cadernos de Saúde Pública, 36(5), 2020, e00068820.
A. Z. Schuchmann, B. L. Schnorrenberger, M. E. Chiquetti, R. S. Gaiki, B. W. Raimann and M. A. Maeyama, Correlação entre o aumento da incidência de sarampo e a diminuição da cobertura vacinal dos últimos 10 anos no Brasil. Brazilian Journal of Health Review, 3(1), 2020, 406–415.
L. H. Duczmal, A. C. L. Almeida, D. B. Duczmal, C. R. L. Alves, F. C. O. Magalhães, M. S. Lima, I. R. Silva and R. H. C. Takahashi, Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, Cadernos de Saúde Pública, 36(5), 2020, e00084420.
N. Anbarci, M. Escaleras and R. Charles, Traffic Fatalities and Public Sector Corruption, KYKLOS, 59(3), 2006, 327–344.
M. Escaleras and C. Register, Public Sector Corruption and Natural Hazards, Public Finance Review, 44(6), 2016, 746–768.