BACKCASTING METHODOLOGY TO ANALYZE EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES THROUGH LITERATURE REVIEW

Abstract

Companies and universities are investing in innovation and technology R&D. To avoid the risk of medium-long-term non-sustainability due to uncertain technology evolution, opportunity cost should be used to choose which technology to invest in. Systematic review and narrative literature analysis evaluate new technologies. Past-Facing and Future-Facing approaches help choose the optimum technology. The methodology has five steps: selection of databases and sources to be subjected to the tested analysis procedure; validation of the selected papers; transition to blinded mode to ensure impartiality; and establishment of the team of experts to apply the evaluation procedures of expert elicitation and quality assessment through SANRA and SCAST tests, which comprise the new experimental SANSER test. Systematic and narrative reviews are examined differently. The first is NR4CASTING, which identifies scientific papers to generate a collection validated by the procedures provided to compose the new narrative review. SR4CASTING classifies scientific papers to build a literature review with references from selected and assessed studies. Our narrative and systematic literature analysis and backcasting method maximizes future-focused decision-making. Thus, NR4CASTING and SR4CASTING allow us to advise the decision-maker on the optimum firm technological evolutions while minimizing switching costs and optimizing expertise and resources.

Keywords: Backcasting, Literature review, Narrative review, Systematic review, Technological innovations.