The Statistical Relationship between Voluntary Transfers from the Union to States and the Budgetary Political Cycles
Abstract
The objective of this study is to verify the relationship between the amount of federal government voluntary transfers to the Brazilian states and the Federal District and their political motivations. To achieve this objective, the panel data methodology will be used for data analysis and treatment. Thus, an econometric model was carried out with the objective of verifying the existence of evidence of party motivation in the transfer of voluntary resources from the Union to the states and the Federal District. For this, the hypothesis tested is that voluntary transfers are greater when the state governors are allied with the heads of the executive of the Union. The data analyzed comprise the period from 1997 to 2015. The results confirm that, although there are laws that regulate the initiatives of public managers in the electoral period, political alignment between state governors and the President of the Republic contributes to an increase in voluntary transfers to states during the campaign period.
Keywords: Voluntary Union transfers to the states. Budgetary Political Cycles. Panel analysis.
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